New AR. is it the sign of the new cycle?
- Valery
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New AR. is it the sign of the new cycle?
Does anydoby know is the new AR a sign of a new cycle?
Last edited by Valery on Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- marktownley
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Re: New AR is a sign of a new cycle?
No, sorry, equatorial based as opposed to higher latitudes. Same polarity as cycle 24 too. Look latitudes 40 degrees for the start of cycle 25 spots.
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Re: New AR is a sign of a new cycle?
More detail - given solar cycle 24 peaked in the (solar) northern hemisphere in november 2011 and (solar) southern hemisphere peaked in february 2014, it would be reasonable to assume solar cycle 25 would start in the (solar) northern hemisphere first, so, this is the region you would look first, and, indeed is where we have already seen the first spots of cycle 25 back end of last year.
Just my theory here, but with cycle 25 forecast to be weaker than 24 (and 23), I would suggest that the time span between the offset peaks of the northern and southern hemisphere to be greater than previous cycles. This would make the smoothed cycle average appear lower than previous cycles, even if individual hemispherical peaks aren't much less than normal. This would tie in with all the predictions of cycle 25 being weaker than previous cycles as these predictions are based on the smoothed cycle average. I feel cycle 25 is a cycle of 2 halves...
Just my theory here, but with cycle 25 forecast to be weaker than 24 (and 23), I would suggest that the time span between the offset peaks of the northern and southern hemisphere to be greater than previous cycles. This would make the smoothed cycle average appear lower than previous cycles, even if individual hemispherical peaks aren't much less than normal. This would tie in with all the predictions of cycle 25 being weaker than previous cycles as these predictions are based on the smoothed cycle average. I feel cycle 25 is a cycle of 2 halves...
http://brierleyhillsolar.blogspot.co.uk/
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- Valery
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Re: New AR is a sign of a new cycle?
Thanks, Mark for your point of view.
Last edited by Valery on Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New AR. is it the sign of the new cycle?
Derek...
Great review of the transition from one cycle to the next...wasn't aware the hemispheres were not linked!
Brian
Great review of the transition from one cycle to the next...wasn't aware the hemispheres were not linked!
Brian
Brian Colville
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Maple Ridge Observatory
Cambray, ON Canada
Photos: https://www.flickr.com/photos/185395281@N08/albums
10'x15 Roll-off Roof Observatory
Takahashi EM400 Mount carrying:
C14 + Lunt 80ED
Deep Sky Work - ASI294MM Pro+EFW 7x36/Canon 60D (Ha mod), ONAG
Planetary Work - SBIG CFW10, ASI462MM
2.2m Diameter Dome
iOptron CEM70G Mount carrying:
Orion EON 130ED, f7 OTA for Day & Night Use
Ha Setup: Lunt LS80PT/LS75FHa/B1200Ha + Home Brew Lunt Double Stack/B1800Ha on the Orion OTA + Daystar Quantum
WL, G-Band & CaK Setup: Lunt Wedge & Lunt B1800CaK, Baader K-Line and Altair 2nm G-Band filter
ASI1600MM, ASI432MM, ASI294MM Pro, ASI174MM, ASI462MM
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Re: New AR. is it the sign of the new cycle?
Interesting, Mark.
Stu.
Stu.
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Fluxgate Magnetometers (1s and 150s Cadence).
Radio meteor detector.
More images at http://www.flickr.com/photos/solarcarbon60/
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Re: New AR. is it the sign of the new cycle?
Interesting stuff
David
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Kit: Skywatcher Evostar 120 on Celestron CG-4 / Bresser AR102xs / Lunt B1200 Ca-K Module / Lacerta Herschel Wedge / Daystar Combo Quark / ZWO ASI178MM & 120MC-S / QHY5-II Mono