Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

these are all of the great references that our users have shared with others.

Moderator: marktownley

Post Reply
User avatar
Bob Yoesle
Almost There...
Almost There...
Posts: 994
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:24 pm
Has thanked: 540 times
Been thanked: 807 times

Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Previous predictions for sunspot cycle 25 were for another relatively weak cycle similar to the previous cycle 24 - which though weak was all-in-all pretty-not-bad ;-) However, the current ramp-up for the current cycle is exceeding the predictions, and the rise in the slope early in the cycle has been an indicator of what the size of the cycle could become, with a steeper rise generally indicative of a stronger solar cycle:

Cycle 25progression.png
Cycle 25progression.png (40.21 KiB) Viewed 2635 times

This seems to be matching up with a prediction made late last year that cycle 25 might be one of the largest in recent history:

Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, depending on when the upcoming termination happens, and it is highly likely that it will certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180).
So while I don't want to get hopes up too much - the Sun is notorious for it's fickleness - things are currently pointed in the right direction.

:D


Diagonally parked in a parallel universe.

Curiosity is the father of knowledge; uncertainty is the mother of wisdom.

Dark-Sky Defenders
Goldendale Observatory
User avatar
Montana
Librarian
Librarian
Posts: 34563
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:25 pm
Location: Cheshire, UK
Has thanked: 17672 times
Been thanked: 8791 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Montana »

Thanks Bob,

There were two opposing predictions last year and my money was on the one that predicted this to be a very powerful cycle. From the moment it started it was a more active increase than what I remember Cycle24 to be. This same group predicted that the first X-class flare would be within one month of the terminator, this was absolutely correct. I have my money on their theory!

Alexandra


User avatar
Bob Yoesle
Almost There...
Almost There...
Posts: 994
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:24 pm
Has thanked: 540 times
Been thanked: 807 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Hi Alexandra,

U-betcha! That's the one. It takes at least six months or more to see how the new cycle will start to ramp up, so things are looking better for the stronger prediction :-)


Diagonally parked in a parallel universe.

Curiosity is the father of knowledge; uncertainty is the mother of wisdom.

Dark-Sky Defenders
Goldendale Observatory
User avatar
marktownley
Librarian
Librarian
Posts: 42272
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:27 pm
Location: Brierley Hills, UK
Has thanked: 20438 times
Been thanked: 10245 times
Contact:

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by marktownley »

Thanks guys! Lets hope it is a big one and Scott is right, I have a feeling he will be.


Image
http://brierleyhillsolar.blogspot.co.uk/
Solar images, a collection of all the most up to date live solar data on the web, imaging & processing tutorials - please take a look!
User avatar
DeepSolar64
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Posts: 18823
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:19 am
Location: Lowndesville S.C.
Has thanked: 17572 times
Been thanked: 16694 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by DeepSolar64 »

This will be my first solar cycle doing Ha so I hope for a good one so this is good news for me!


Lunt 8x32 SUNoculars
Orion 70mm Solar Telescope
Celestron AstroMaster Alt/Az Mount
Meade Coronado SolarMax II 60 DS
Meade Coronado SolarMax II 90 DS
Meade Coronado AZS Alt/Az Mount
Astro-Tech AT72EDII with Altair solar wedge
Celestron NexStar 102GT with Altair solar wedge
Losmandy AZ8 Alt/Az Mount
Sky-Watcher AZGTI Alt-Az GoTo mount
Cameras: ZWO ASI178MM, PGR Grasshopper, PGR Flea
Lunt, Coronado, TeleVue, Orion and Meade eyepieces

Image Visual Observer
" Way more fun to see it! "
User avatar
Carbon60
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Posts: 14209
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:33 pm
Location: Lancashire, UK
Has thanked: 8418 times
Been thanked: 8162 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Carbon60 »

Very promising indeed. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months to see if the trend continues.

Let’s hope for a good one :)

Stu.


H-alpha, WL and Ca II K imaging kit for various image scales.
Fluxgate Magnetometers (1s and 150s Cadence).
Radio meteor detector.
More images at http://www.flickr.com/photos/solarcarbon60/
User avatar
rsfoto
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Posts: 6163
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:30 pm
Location: San Luis Potosi, México
Has thanked: 9412 times
Been thanked: 5573 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by rsfoto »

Hi,

Very interesting. Exciting times are ahead of us and now just chop down the palm trees of my neighbour and get rid of the clouds ...

I am away from my observatory until October 13th. I am looking at the Sun from a Beach with lots of Palm trees :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


regards Rainer

Observatorio Real de 14
San Luis Potosi Mexico

North 22° West 101°
User avatar
eroel
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Posts: 9408
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:45 pm
Location: México D.F.
Been thanked: 4904 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by eroel »

Bob:
Thanks for the information, hope that will have a better trend.
Best regards.
Eric.


User avatar
marktownley
Librarian
Librarian
Posts: 42272
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:27 pm
Location: Brierley Hills, UK
Has thanked: 20438 times
Been thanked: 10245 times
Contact:

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by marktownley »

There's some really interesting stuff on it here from Scott and his team:

https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle? ... dGa1nzvtPc


Image
http://brierleyhillsolar.blogspot.co.uk/
Solar images, a collection of all the most up to date live solar data on the web, imaging & processing tutorials - please take a look!
User avatar
Montana
Librarian
Librarian
Posts: 34563
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:25 pm
Location: Cheshire, UK
Has thanked: 17672 times
Been thanked: 8791 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Montana »

Those first two graphs are crackers! Why is the NOAA prediction suddenly changed to a 6 month time shift? just to fit it to the data? You should never fit your theory to the data, if the theory is right it will fit the data itself.

Alexandra


EGRAY_OBSERVATORY
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Posts: 6871
Joined: Mon May 18, 2020 4:45 pm
Location: Essex, S.E.England
Been thanked: 4900 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by EGRAY_OBSERVATORY »

As I see it (and have always done so), we cannot and will never control the Sun and what it is doing, so any charts and analysis can really only be based on an hypothesis (a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation).

Although that and new evidence is becoming more well-known to us today, our Sun is still showing new-activities - which we as imagers and viewers, as well as the big-boys at NASA/NOAA etc., show that the un-expected can still occur.

Terry


User avatar
MapleRidge
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Way More Fun to Share It!!
Posts: 10199
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 11:58 pm
Location: Cambray, ON Canada
Has thanked: 64 times
Been thanked: 4340 times
Contact:

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by MapleRidge »

Thanks to all for the links and forecasts associated with them.

Time will tell how strong this cycle becomes, but looking good so far ;)

Brian


Brian Colville

Maple Ridge Observatory
Cambray, ON Canada

Photos: https://www.flickr.com/photos/185395281@N08/albums

10'x15 Roll-off Roof Observatory
Takahashi EM400 Mount carrying:
C14 + Lunt 80ED
Deep Sky Work - ASI294MM Pro+EFW 7x36/Canon 60D (Ha mod), ONAG
Planetary Work - SBIG CFW10, ASI462MM

2.2m Diameter Dome
iOptron CEM70G Mount carrying:
Orion EON 130ED, f7 OTA for Day & Night Use
Ha Setup: Lunt LS80PT/LS75FHa/B1200Ha + Home Brew Lunt Double Stack/B1800Ha on the Orion OTA + Daystar Quantum
WL, G-Band & CaK Setup: Lunt Wedge & Lunt B1800CaK, Baader K-Line and Altair 2nm G-Band filter
ASI1600MM, ASI432MM, ASI294MM Pro, ASI174MM, ASI462MM
User avatar
Bob Yoesle
Almost There...
Almost There...
Posts: 994
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:24 pm
Has thanked: 540 times
Been thanked: 807 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Mark; thanks for that link to Helio4cast!
Those first two graphs are crackers! Why is the NOAA prediction suddenly changed to a 6 month time shift? just to fit it to the data? You should never fit your theory to the data, if the theory is right it will fit the data itself.
Hi Alexandra,

Good question, however - It doesn't appear the 6 month shift was done to just to fit the data - even though that's what it says. I remembered that the consensus forecast was for cycle 25 to begin in April 2020 +/- 6 months:

Cycle 25 consensus forecast.jpg
Cycle 25 consensus forecast.jpg (158 KiB) Viewed 2480 times

Therefore the forecast was also apparently shifted to align the end of cycle 24 with the beginning of cycle 25 in late November or early December 2019 from the original prediction of April 2020:

Cycles_24_25_minimum.png
Cycles_24_25_minimum.png (179.49 KiB) Viewed 2491 times


The Helio4cast graph shows that when corrected 6 months for the timing of the end of cycle 24 and the beginning of cycle 25, the recent data showing an increase in sunspot activity might still be within the upper range of the original NOAA/NASA/ISES prediction, and the mean activity also appears to be tracking well with the original prediction. Therefore we will need several more months to see whether the McIntosh et.al. prediction begins to show if it might be the more accurate prediction:

cycle25_prediction_focus.png
cycle25_prediction_focus.png (172.12 KiB) Viewed 2491 times

For now at least it appears the original consensus forecast is still quite valid, and the spaceweather.com sunspot update report which initiated this post was based on an inaccurate start date for cycle 25.


Diagonally parked in a parallel universe.

Curiosity is the father of knowledge; uncertainty is the mother of wisdom.

Dark-Sky Defenders
Goldendale Observatory
User avatar
Bob Yoesle
Almost There...
Almost There...
Posts: 994
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:24 pm
Has thanked: 540 times
Been thanked: 807 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Reviewing Dr. Upton's WAS presentation starting at 40:42 indicates the reliability of the NOAA/NASA/ISES consensus prediction (top graphic), and is in agreement with observed sunspot activity - and remains so - and that the recent spacewether.com post used the original prediction for the April 2020 start date (bottom graphic) instead of the corrected start date of December 2019:
SC25 shift v non-shift.jpg
SC25 shift v non-shift.jpg (265.44 KiB) Viewed 2439 times


Diagonally parked in a parallel universe.

Curiosity is the father of knowledge; uncertainty is the mother of wisdom.

Dark-Sky Defenders
Goldendale Observatory
User avatar
Bob Yoesle
Almost There...
Almost There...
Posts: 994
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:24 pm
Has thanked: 540 times
Been thanked: 807 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Bob Yoesle »

If the consensus prediction includes the + 10 sunspot number increase, we continue to have a good if not better fit, with a peak in late 2024, which appears to fall close to the original +/- 8 months NOAA/NASA/ESIS prediction:
SC25 -6 +10.jpg
SC25 -6 +10.jpg (202.41 KiB) Viewed 2430 times


Diagonally parked in a parallel universe.

Curiosity is the father of knowledge; uncertainty is the mother of wisdom.

Dark-Sky Defenders
Goldendale Observatory
User avatar
Bob Yoesle
Almost There...
Almost There...
Posts: 994
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:24 pm
Has thanked: 540 times
Been thanked: 807 times

Re: Sunspot Cycle 25 expectations

Post by Bob Yoesle »

An interesting comparison of the recent data shows the the sunspot smoothed monthly value curve (SMV - purple) with the -6 month curve predictions, and demonstrates the SMV has been consistently above the mean prediction curve:

SC25 close-up.jpg
SC25 close-up.jpg (181.34 KiB) Viewed 2397 times

If this trend continues, the peak smoothed sunspot number will be above the mean prediction of 115 and closer to 125. Cycle 24 had a smoothed value peak value 116.


Diagonally parked in a parallel universe.

Curiosity is the father of knowledge; uncertainty is the mother of wisdom.

Dark-Sky Defenders
Goldendale Observatory
Post Reply